Choosing facts over fears and seeking truth from facts: analysing the impact US Tarrifs on South Africa-

Themba Andrew Makamu

27 July 2025South Africa’s encounter with fresh U.S. tariffs has prompted a flurry of dire predictions, but the reality demands a steadier hand guided by facts rather than alarm. Any increase in duty structures presents genuine costs for affected firms and communities, especially those deeply integrated into U.S. supply chains. Yet portraying Washington’s measures as an economy-toppling event ignores the deliberate diversification that underpins our resilience and the myriad strategic tools at our disposal.In 2024, South African exporters sent USD 12.4 billion worth of goods to China and USD 4.7 billion to India, with total exports to BRICS partners, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, amounting to approximately USD 17.6 billion (Stats SA, 2024). Meanwhile, the European Union absorbed over USD 20 billion in South African products, and the United Kingdom took USD 5.3 billion (Stats SA, 2024). By contrast, exports to the United States accounted for USD 8.2 billion, substantial in isolation but dwarfed by our combined BRICS, EU, and UK markets, which together represent more than USD 40 billion in export value (Stats SA, 2024).

This five-to-one ratio underscores the intentional breadth of our trade portfolio, designed precisely to prevent undue dependence on any single market and to safeguard national sovereignty.That the U.S. looms large in global politics does not automatically elevate it to the central pillar of South African commerce. American consumers, investors, and technology partners remain important, our manufacturers supply wiring harnesses and sub-assemblies to U.S. auto plants, our winemakers court sommeliers from Sonoma to New York, and our mining firms engage with American capital markets (DTI, 2024). However, these relationships exist alongside vibrant ties with Europe, Asia, and our continental neighbors. When one door creaks under the weight of tariff hikes, others swing open. The fallacy of center-stage thinking, not the realignment of duties, poses the greater threat to our enduring prosperity.

The automotive components sector vividly illustrates the modest scale of U.S. reliance. South African producers export chassis parts, electrical wiring, and sub-assemblies destined for American factories that assemble iconic vehicles (Automotive Export Council, 2024). A sudden increase to 30 percent in U.S. duties might trim a few hundred million rand from export revenues, but it neither bankrupts factories nor severs skills chains honed over decades (AEC, 2024). Instead, affected firms can redirect output to European or Asian original-equipment manufacturers, where tariff barriers remain lower or non-existent. Moreover, as electric vehicles gain prominence, emerging export opportunities for battery packs and critical minerals are less mired in legacy tariff regimes (Minerals Council South Africa, 2024).Agriculture and agro-processing also face new headwinds but from a position of strength. Citrus growers shipping oranges and grapefruits to Florida and wine estates courting Californian connoisseurs will feel the sting of tighter inspections and higher duties (SA Grain Information Service, 2024). Yet these sectors were already shipping larger volumes to European tables and rapidly expanding into Asian markets hungry for premium proteins, nuts, and fruit (SAGIS, 2024). In parallel, value-added processing, such as the production of fine wines, rooibos teas, and macadamia-nut oil, commands price premiums that cushion duty impacts (AgriSA, 2024). Thanks to longstanding bilateral agreements with the EU and burgeoning trade relations with nations across the Indian Ocean, producers can pivot without sacrificing scale or brand equity (DTI, 2024).The mining and metals complex contends with U.S. Section 232 tariffs of 25 percent on specified steel and aluminum imports (Department of Trade and Industry, 2024). Since exports to the American market account for under 5 percent of South Africa’s total steel production, the macroeconomic effect is contained (SA Steel Export Council, 2024). Steelmakers will see a revenue dent, but not a fatal blow; global infrastructure demand, especially in Asia and Africa, continues to surge, buoyed by urbanization and decarbonization efforts (World Steel Association, 2024). The value of South African chrome, manganese, and platinum group metals remains driven by industrial end-use and investment demand in China, Japan, and Western Europe, far offsetting any short-term U.S. distortions (Minerals Council South Africa, 2024).Shifting sales channels presents the first line of defense. Manufacturers and growers losing market share in the U.S. can amplify outreach in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, exploiting their tariff-free or favorable-duty regimes (Export Credit Insurance Corporation, 2024). South African Trade and Investment Promotion Councils have decades of experience opening doors from Hamburg to Hanoi; existing infrastructures in logistics, marketing, and compliance can be recalibrated rather than built from scratch (DTI, 2024). The agility of private enterprises, supported by streamlined export credit facilities, ensures that capacity idled by U.S. duties can reemerge in corridors where South African goods retain their competitive edge (ECIC, 2024).Within our own continent, the African Continental Free Trade Area offers a vast, underexploited market of 1.3 billion consumers (AfCFTA Secretariat, 2024). By improving cross-border infrastructure, standardizing regulations, and reducing non-tariff barriers, local and regional governments are fostering conditions for manufactured goods, processed foods, and services to flow more freely (AU, 2024). South African automakers can supply knock-down kits to assembly plants in Nigeria; agribusinesses can extend cold-chain networks from Limpopo to Dar es Salaam (DTI, 2024). Success in unlocking intra-African markets not only diversifies revenue streams but also deepens political and economic integration, generating spillover benefits in job creation and technology transfer (AfCFTA Secretariat, 2024).Currency fluctuations add another natural buffer. A softer rand makes South African exports more affordable on the world market, automatically counterbalancing higher foreign duties to some extent (SARB, 2024). Companies can hedge exposures through forward contracts and currency swaps, while banks offer risk-sharing loans that align repayment schedules with export receivables (Nedbank, 2024). Government agencies stand ready with logistical subsidies and training programs to help businesses adjust their pricing models, fine-tune supply chains, and preserve margins, particularly critical for small and medium-sized enterprises that may lack scale economies (dtic, 2024).Sovereignty in trade policy is non-negotiable. Ceding strategic decision-making to placate one market invites repeated disruptions and undermines national agency. South Africa’s multipolar stance reflects a clear-eyed assessment of global power shifts, the rise of new economic blocs, and the importance of aligning with markets that respect our development imperatives (WTO, 2024). Our long-standing membership in the World Trade Organization, the African Union, BRICS, and numerous bilateral partnerships demonstrates a commitment to rules-based trade that transcends bilateral tempests (WTO, 2024). We must resist calls to reshape our foreign and economic policy around fleeting grievances emanating from one capital.The real danger lies not in external tariffs but in internal complacency and defeatism. By framing our economy as hostage to U.S. goodwill, fear-mongers obscure the true path forward: doubling down on diversification, investing in value-added capacities, and forging deeper ties across Asia, Africa, and Europe. South Africa possesses abundant mineral wealth, world-class agricultural producers, sophisticated manufacturing, and a dynamic services sector (DTI, 2024). We have weathered past commodity slumps, global financial crises, and regional conflicts by adapting our export mix, nurturing emerging industries, and leveraging our strategic geographic position at the southern tip of Africa (Stats SA, 2024).In the final analysis, we must choose facts over fears, and seek truth from facts, while the U.S. tariffs present a tactical setback, they do not present a strategic defeat. Firms and policymakers must address immediate challenges, reworking contracts, reoptimizing logistics, and providing targeted support to affected workers, while staying the course on a diversified, balanced trade strategy. Far from collapsing under a few percentage points of additional duty, South Africa can emerge stronger, its networks widened and its market footprint broadened. Rejecting fear-based narratives, we reaffirm our economic sovereignty and embrace the world, broad, varied, and full of opportunity, as our true oyster. Borrowing the words of Moa Zedong “let a hundred flowers bloom, let a hundred schools contend”Themba Andrew Makamu is a Political Sciences, BPA Honours and a Postgraduate Diploma in Public Law graduate who writes in his own personal capacity ReferencesAfrican Union (AU). 2024. “AfCFTA Progress Report.”AfCFTA Secretariat. 2024. “Intra-Africa Trade Statistics.”AgriSA. 2024. “Value-Added Agricultural Exports.”Automotive Export Council (AEC). 2024. “Sector Overview.”Department of Trade and Industry (DTI). 2024. “Trade Performance Database.”Department of Trade and Industry (dtic). 2024. “Export and Growth Support.”Export Credit Insurance Corporation (ECIC). 2024. “Annual Report.”Minerals Council South Africa. 2024. “Critical Minerals Outlook.”Nedbank. 2024. “Trade Finance Solutions.”SA Grain Information Service (SAGIS). 2024. “Citrus and Nut Export Data.”SA Reserve Bank (SARB). 2024. “Monetary Policy Review.”SA Steel Export Council. 2024. “Global Steel Trade.”Stats SA. 2024. “Foreign Trade Statistics.”World Steel Association. 2024. “Global Infrastructure Demand.”World Trade Organization (WTO). 2024. “Trade Policy Review: South Africa.”